With the published unemplyment rate at over 10% nationally and the practical unemployment rate standing at 17.3% nationwide, and Oklahoma's published rate at roughly 6.5% as of December 31, its easy to convince yourself things are hopeless. Tulsa published rate of 4.2% stands thirteenth out of the 50 largest cities in the nation. It's current budget upset has dominated local media, giving us a daily reminder of our own fiscal and emotional fragility. There is a difference between knowing its not your fault and you just have to stay with the effort over a long period of time, and giving up in the most literal sense of the act.
When exiting the consitutional convention, Ben Franklin was asked if we had a We live in an era when information is published by numerous sources and delivered on the internet. Think tanks have websites, government have websites, universities have websites, talk radio repeats the website information, and you can listen to all levels of education and information on call in shows. Such is the extent of our freedom that the river of facts and statistics flows in to an ocean of analysis and comment by literally everyone. Its good that we know these trends and factoids, but that freedom also demands that we have the emotional strength and self awareness to keep them in perspective. And its not easy.
If memory serves me correctly, it was Benjamin Franklin as he exited the constitutional convention who was asked by a bystander what we had in the way of a nation. Franklin's reply was a succinct, "A Republic, if you can keep it." As so much of Franklin's wisdom did, the reply inferred that the new nation would take work and vigilence. That short statement over 250 years ago describes what it takes to protect our freedom in general (work and vigilence), dealing with the freedom of information that flows from it (careful thought and evaluation), dealing with looking for a job in this economy (perserverance and direction), as well as dealing with ourselves during the search (perspective and more perspective).
There are three mental things to face during a layoff period, before we ever get to the job search. The blame game - Why me? The minimization game, consistency of effort - What good am I doing searching now? I'm simply pumping resumes in to cyberspeace and no one's seeing them? The end game - When am I ever going to find a job? There isn't any response to what I'm doing here.
The blame game is easy. It makes sense in a way. People of faith are fond of saying everything happens for a reason. Whatever your denomination, and none is a denomination unto itself, it's easy (human nature?) to get stuck on the reason being you. Layoffs are a numbers game. They are not a performance review. If you were truly incompetant, you would have been warned and fired if you did not respond, long before the layoff ocurred. Since the definition of profit is narrow and does not include all the costs of doing business, some level of profit is required to survive. Layoffs are an act forced on a business by external forces in the market place. When the market circumstances dictate and survival is a requirement, only then are names chosen. No one act of an individual employee caused a name to be put on a list at the time of a layoff.
The minimization game is more difficult. I am one person, my efforts are insignificant. If I'm insignificant, my efforts can have no meaningful effect. If these efforts have no meaningful effect I am lost in the job market. Although it sounds inconsistent to say, the individual needs to look backward. Experience is valuable, its a group of accomplishments to the credit of the individual. Its knowledge acquired through practical means. Its unique since all employees bring their own perspective to a job. Although its possible experience is duplicated in some way by numerous others in the market place, its a personal asset the employee offers and has value to someone.
Ah, the end game. A cliche searcing for a home, but in this case the end game means getting a job and therefore covering the house payment, groceries, utilities, et al. This is also an unknown unless you are independently wealthy, connected to people in high places, or simply in demand. Certainly everyone looking for a job could have gone after MBA's, CPA's, PhD's, MD's, and the rest of the alphabet. In many cases the cost would have been prohibitive, taken away from higher prioirty expenses, or resulted in a debt burden that was unwise (MD's excluded here). Not everyone can get in to grad school. Not everyone can get out of grad school. We are all unique with strengths in various areas of life and education. The time it takes to find and land the next job is governed by our effort. Hiring is a decision in control of others with input from us, the job seekers. We are engaged in providing the decision makers with the best information we can publish, not controlling their decisions.
All three above traps result in the job seeker assuming he or she is impotent and dilutes effort dedicated to finding a job. They result is the self fulfilling prophecy of continuing unemployment. No one is completely without skills, no employer will pass on a chance to hire an individual that can contribute to the organization. This aspect of life, is a merry go round. Get on it, stay on it, you will pass by the job eventually. But only if you stay on the ride and keep reaching out for the ring.
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
Friday, January 29, 2010
LIfe After the Death of Work
I went back in my retirement file the other day and took a look at my Social Security statement. You remember this idea. We get something in the mail, roughly semi annually, that tells us how much we have coming in our monthly check assuming we stay employed at the same wage rate we now make and until we retire at an age to be named later. That bit of sarcasm is a veiled reference to the financial viability of the fund itself.
That little ray of bureaucratic sunshine that is "Your Social Security Statement" told me that I had been contributing to Social Security every single year since 1969, 40 straight years. That streak started with the Chinese restaurant my senior year in high school, the dishwashing in the Jackson Hole area that summer, the summers in a salvage freight terminal whilst in college, and various finance and accounting jobs after twice graduating from colleges. For a protracted length of time I have been building a balance in history's oldest 401K plan, managed under the trusteeship of the United States government.
Several months ago, I was laid off from a company after twenty one years of service. How was I going to keep up this uninterrupted record of wage earning in this economy that was the foundation of the retirement hoped for by my wife and myself? "Why me" cannot be answered, nor can it produce anything positive.
In the beginning it felt like cause for a memorial service of sorts, to lament loss of a set of constant human contacts as well as the dear departed paycheck. Next came the wholehearted effort towards the job search against a backdrop of recession and the reality that on a resume it is impossible to camoflage age if you want to portray depth or breadth of experience.
Within this context came the realization that effort has be focused on both a process and a goal. The goal was obvious, find a job. The process was a mystery after being away from it for over twenty nine years. A statistic was reported on one of the major networks recently that helps put the current unemployment in perspective. The practical number that matters here is 17.3%. That's the number of people without jobs, plus people who have gone from working full time to working part-time (underemployed) , plus people who have stopped looking. How many millions of people that includes is unknown.
That's 17.3% of the workforce that will pay far fewer federal income taxes, far fewer state income taxes, far less sales tax, and may fall behind on property taxes paid on homes. All the while drawing increased transfer payments from multiple levels of government for unemployment. This all adds up to the dollar amount of the "unemployment deficit" related to the current recession. It's magnitude would be interesting to know.
All the above to say this. Unemployment sends ripples throughout the economy that accumlate one on top of the other over time. The job seeker faces a down employment market for some time in to the future as the ripples play out with the length of time the process and goal are required of the job seeker depends on forces that he or she cannot control. The focus required of the newly unemployed is the equivalent of the first day on a new job. Except we are working not for wages but to return to what we know best, careers.
That little ray of bureaucratic sunshine that is "Your Social Security Statement" told me that I had been contributing to Social Security every single year since 1969, 40 straight years. That streak started with the Chinese restaurant my senior year in high school, the dishwashing in the Jackson Hole area that summer, the summers in a salvage freight terminal whilst in college, and various finance and accounting jobs after twice graduating from colleges. For a protracted length of time I have been building a balance in history's oldest 401K plan, managed under the trusteeship of the United States government.
Several months ago, I was laid off from a company after twenty one years of service. How was I going to keep up this uninterrupted record of wage earning in this economy that was the foundation of the retirement hoped for by my wife and myself? "Why me" cannot be answered, nor can it produce anything positive.
In the beginning it felt like cause for a memorial service of sorts, to lament loss of a set of constant human contacts as well as the dear departed paycheck. Next came the wholehearted effort towards the job search against a backdrop of recession and the reality that on a resume it is impossible to camoflage age if you want to portray depth or breadth of experience.
Within this context came the realization that effort has be focused on both a process and a goal. The goal was obvious, find a job. The process was a mystery after being away from it for over twenty nine years. A statistic was reported on one of the major networks recently that helps put the current unemployment in perspective. The practical number that matters here is 17.3%. That's the number of people without jobs, plus people who have gone from working full time to working part-time (underemployed) , plus people who have stopped looking. How many millions of people that includes is unknown.
That's 17.3% of the workforce that will pay far fewer federal income taxes, far fewer state income taxes, far less sales tax, and may fall behind on property taxes paid on homes. All the while drawing increased transfer payments from multiple levels of government for unemployment. This all adds up to the dollar amount of the "unemployment deficit" related to the current recession. It's magnitude would be interesting to know.
All the above to say this. Unemployment sends ripples throughout the economy that accumlate one on top of the other over time. The job seeker faces a down employment market for some time in to the future as the ripples play out with the length of time the process and goal are required of the job seeker depends on forces that he or she cannot control. The focus required of the newly unemployed is the equivalent of the first day on a new job. Except we are working not for wages but to return to what we know best, careers.
Thursday, January 21, 2010
The City of the Future?
Oklahoma state law requires municipalities to have balanced budgets. The dramatic cost cutting now underway in Tulsa, both in the media and reality arises from that fundamental dictate.
Whatever side of the political aisle you are on, the financial picture is not comforting and the future seems far from "shining city on the hill" status Ronald Reagan ascribed to America. The largest controllable cost item in the city budget is salaries. A seemingly humane idea in good times since as an employer you want to invest in people and families as best you can. We are now seeing the second edge of the money sword, as this hopefully humane item is also the only one big enough to close the budget balancing gap of over $10,000,000.
Tulsa's 2010 operating coxt budget is $519,361,000, a decrease of $4,257,000 from the previous year. Out of that total, $248,000,000 goes to public works and $186,000,000 to public safety. All remaining city operations get $85,316,000. Further, city revenues are were expected to decrease by $5,600,000 from previous year. The city is falling short of what was a tighter budget than last year.
The city employee base is divided amoung three separate unions. Police, fire, and city operational people all serve one employer, Tulsa, but separate masters, their union. We arrived at this situation by free market means. The employees voted on joining unions and the majority ruled. These unions bargain on behalf of the members with the city for wages as well as represent their members in situations like the current budget shortfall and negotiations.
In previous years, Tulsa sought to enhance sales tax revenues by capital projects geared toward entertainment, the BOK Arena and the new ONEOK baseball stadium. Both require police presence for security, spelled manpower, which means payroll dollars. Also came a move to a city hall with tranparency, not the O'bama kind but the glass kind, with relatively higher operating costs as well as a vacany rate. All these items impact the general fund budget that supports the payrolls.
No one could have foreseen the economic meltdown at the time the arena was built. The ballpark and City Hall?????? We now find outselves in the position of trading public safety payroll dollars for monuments. To be sure, in a budget as big as Tulsa's, one could argue other things could have been cut to protect our police and fire staffs. But it could also be argued that many of those things were cut from the previous year's budget to balance it, before the current year problem arose.
Stay tuned for the remaining five months of the fiscal year.
Whatever side of the political aisle you are on, the financial picture is not comforting and the future seems far from "shining city on the hill" status Ronald Reagan ascribed to America. The largest controllable cost item in the city budget is salaries. A seemingly humane idea in good times since as an employer you want to invest in people and families as best you can. We are now seeing the second edge of the money sword, as this hopefully humane item is also the only one big enough to close the budget balancing gap of over $10,000,000.
Tulsa's 2010 operating coxt budget is $519,361,000, a decrease of $4,257,000 from the previous year. Out of that total, $248,000,000 goes to public works and $186,000,000 to public safety. All remaining city operations get $85,316,000. Further, city revenues are were expected to decrease by $5,600,000 from previous year. The city is falling short of what was a tighter budget than last year.
The city employee base is divided amoung three separate unions. Police, fire, and city operational people all serve one employer, Tulsa, but separate masters, their union. We arrived at this situation by free market means. The employees voted on joining unions and the majority ruled. These unions bargain on behalf of the members with the city for wages as well as represent their members in situations like the current budget shortfall and negotiations.
In previous years, Tulsa sought to enhance sales tax revenues by capital projects geared toward entertainment, the BOK Arena and the new ONEOK baseball stadium. Both require police presence for security, spelled manpower, which means payroll dollars. Also came a move to a city hall with tranparency, not the O'bama kind but the glass kind, with relatively higher operating costs as well as a vacany rate. All these items impact the general fund budget that supports the payrolls.
No one could have foreseen the economic meltdown at the time the arena was built. The ballpark and City Hall?????? We now find outselves in the position of trading public safety payroll dollars for monuments. To be sure, in a budget as big as Tulsa's, one could argue other things could have been cut to protect our police and fire staffs. But it could also be argued that many of those things were cut from the previous year's budget to balance it, before the current year problem arose.
Stay tuned for the remaining five months of the fiscal year.
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Outside the ballott box -
The unthinkable happened last night. The senate seat held by Edward Kennedy was lost to the GOP by a 52% t0 48% vote in a special election. That put the senate makeup at 59 Democrats and 41 Republicans. One vote from Democrat dominance. One vote away from where it was two months ago when Kennedy could have voted. One vote and two months separated the Obama administration from having health care uncompromised. Was it really that important for the Democrats to get eveything their way?
The 60-40 split was required to shut down debate and get the Senate bill to a vote. Why did they wait? For one thing, it took the Democrat majority that long to get its own majority in order on the details of the bill. How great can this bill be if the deal making within the Democrats was as time consuming as it was?
The shere size of the bill was daunting. Thousands of pages of verbiage, more government spending. A well publicized deal with the Nebraska senator to exempt his state from taxation supporting the bill damaged credibility. Added government spending and the oddity that the taxes start four years before the coverage does. All of this was supposed to be to leave a monument to the late Massachussets Senator, who held his seat since 1962. Forty eight years of votes, deals, compromise.
The irony of the situation was that in Senator Kennedy's term of service, he undoubtedly horse traded and dealt with the best of his peers. His repeated election indicated he was certainly reverred by his constituents but also able to stay attractive to the demographics of a changing electorate. A sort of dealing in itself. Yet his great legacy fell victim to a failure on the part of his party to compromise on his legacy piece of legislation. Whose legacy was this really? Kennedy's? O'bama's?
The 60-40 split was required to shut down debate and get the Senate bill to a vote. Why did they wait? For one thing, it took the Democrat majority that long to get its own majority in order on the details of the bill. How great can this bill be if the deal making within the Democrats was as time consuming as it was?
The shere size of the bill was daunting. Thousands of pages of verbiage, more government spending. A well publicized deal with the Nebraska senator to exempt his state from taxation supporting the bill damaged credibility. Added government spending and the oddity that the taxes start four years before the coverage does. All of this was supposed to be to leave a monument to the late Massachussets Senator, who held his seat since 1962. Forty eight years of votes, deals, compromise.
The irony of the situation was that in Senator Kennedy's term of service, he undoubtedly horse traded and dealt with the best of his peers. His repeated election indicated he was certainly reverred by his constituents but also able to stay attractive to the demographics of a changing electorate. A sort of dealing in itself. Yet his great legacy fell victim to a failure on the part of his party to compromise on his legacy piece of legislation. Whose legacy was this really? Kennedy's? O'bama's?
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
Note from the amiss
What's wrong with this picture?
The government allows us to save money, tax deferred, toward our retirement. It's called a 401K and most of us babboomers have been doing this for various lengths of time. Currently we have 10% plus unemployment, causing some of us to have to tap state and federal umenplotyment funds, in to which we have payed for years. We now discover (media reports) that up to 40 states have ballooning budget deficits and some may be close to bankruptcy.
Some part of the baby boom generation are now unemployed and not all have glitzy severance packages. Some got no warning and no severance at all. That means using the above mentioned unemployment funds for daily living. Some have a 401K to which they have contributed for years.
What would be the affect of declaring a moritorium on the 20% penalty on 401K funds withdrawn before age 59? The owner of the 401K would still have to pay taxes on the money withdrawn. Would the money withdrawn help relieve pressure on state unemployment funds? Would it not increase the income tax collections realized by the individual states (those who have a state income tax) and therefore reduce deficits? It would also relieve some of the pressure on the states unemployment funds. I realize this would put a little more control of our savings and investments in to our hands, but on the other hand it just accelerates a tax we would eventually have paid anyway.
Something for your consideration with the morning coffee.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)